4/28/03:
Dealers Do Bust, Really! ...With A Little Help From You

Dear Mark,
When the dealer is showing a bust card (2, 3, 4, 5, 6), how often does she really bust? Dan A.

Never, as in "When I¹m playing, they never bust." overstates it, Dan, though we've all had that feeling. But they do bust, as often as 43% of the time when a six is showing. Success at blackjack, Dan, is based on how you play your hand against the dealer¹s upcard. The upcard provides you with enough information to reliably predict the most likely outcome of play against any dealer's hand, based on the makeup of a standard deck of playing cards. A multitude of computer studies have been done on the game of blackjack, analyzing the correct strategy on playing your hand, against any given dealer's upcard. Because the dealer plays by a set of strict house rules on when to stand or when to take a card, she must draw a card until she has a total of 17 or more. Based on computers crunching their diet of 1s and 0s, the dealer will bust more often when her upcard is a 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6, and she will successfully complete more hands when her up card is a 7, 8, 9, or a 10-value card (10, J, Q, K) or an ace.

The following table, Dan, shows the dealer's likelihood of busting with any particular upcard.

Percent of the time she'll bust

Note, Dan, that the dealer will bust most often when she has a 5 or a 6 as her upcard, and she will bust the least frequently, approximately 11% of the time, when her upcard is an ace. Generally speaking, basic strategy dictates it is to your advantage to stand down when the dealer¹s upcard is a 2 through 6, then hope, wish and pray, as we all do, that your femme fatale of fate draws a 10-value card that makes her bust. (Yes, I know there¹s a pun in there somewhere, but I¹m avoiding it.) It also means that when the dealer¹s upcard is 7 through ace, she will complete more of her hands. In that situation, you will need to draw cards up to a total of 17 or more.

Dear Mark,
In blackjack, is it true that the biggest jump in the casino edge is when you move from one to two decks, and with each additional deck, the house
edge is less dramatic? Sam B.

You are correct, Sam. It is always to your advantage to play against as few decks as possible. With respect to deck sizes, the casino edge goes up substantially as you go from 1 deck to 2, tapers off when you go from 2 to 6 decks, and is negligible when you go from a 6 to 8-deck shoe.

Casino edge:
Two decks -0.35%
Four decks -0.48%
Six decks -0.48%
Eight decks -0.56%

You can offset this casino advantage by finding player-friendly rules where surrender is allowed, as is doubling down after splitting pairs, and re-splitting aces.

Improvement in your winning chance:
Double after split +0.14%
Early surrender +0.70%
Late surrender +0.06%
Resplit Aces +0.14%
Double anytime +0.24%

Or how about this gem I haven¹t seen in a blue moon: A Natural paying 2 to 1. Your expected win rate goes up +2.3% with this beauty.

Bottom line: Smart players always know enough to take advantage of favorable playing conditions and to sniff out and shun the unfavorable ones. Which type of player are you? Unfair question, but what the heck?

Gambling thought of the week: "The longer you expose yourself to the casino environment, the more susceptible you become to their ploys."Jerry L. Patterson, Casino Gambling